Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday following the Department of Energy’s inventory report. Stockpiles came out in line with expectations. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout most of the east coast and mid-west for the next 2-weeks but cooler on the west coast. Overall this should reduce heating demand. There is still a disconnect between cash and futures prices, but the cash price is declining which is weighing on the futures contract.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices whipsawed, but made a lower high and a lower low, and closed down on the session losing 5%. Resistance is seen near the February highs at 3.32, while support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.96. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The RSI (relative strength index) was overbought and has moved into the neutral range which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Inventories Rise in Line with Expectations

Natural gas in storage was 2,281 Bcf as of Friday, February 12, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net decrease of 237 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 237 Bcf draw according to survey provide Estimize. Stocks were 105 Bcf less than last year at this time and 57 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,224 Bcf. At 2,281 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.