Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Despite Rise In LNG Exports

Natural gas prices attempted to push higher on Tuesday but were unable to remain buoyed and closed the session down 0.5%. Weather in the mid-west is expected to remain colder than normal which should help buoy heating demand. The weather in the south east is expected to remain warmer than normal helps to buoy cooling demand. LNG demand rose 8% year over year in 2018 according to a recent report from the Energy Information Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices edged lower after making a higher high early in the session. Short term support is seen near the 10-day moving average which coincides with a horizontal trend line that comes in near 2.53. Resistance is seen near the April highs at 2.73. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices and accelerating positive momentum. The fast stochastic is looking toppy and poised to generate a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 48, which is in the middle of the neutral range and points to consolidation.

Energy Information Administration Reports LNG Exports from US Rises 8 Percent

The EIA reported that in 2018 LNG exports increased by 3.2 billion cubic feet per day to 41.3 Bcf per day, an 8% increase from 2017 and the third-largest annual increase on record. The EIA sites the LNG Industry GIIGNL Annual Report 2018. Global spot and short-term LNG trade increased by 2.9 Bcf per day according to the EIA, the largest annual increase on record. Spot and short-term trade accounted for 32% of the total global LNG trade in 2018, up from 27% in 2017, as more uncontracted LNG supply, became available on the spot market.