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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Following EIA Inventory Report

Short term momentum is negative
David Becker

Natural gas prices eased on Thursday following an inventory report from the Department of Energy that was in line with expectations. The weather is expected to be much cooler than normal in the upper midwest and then the midwest over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. There is a tropical depression in the northern Atlantic and NOAA is now predicting that a storm of the coast of Florida has a 10% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices eased on Thursday sliding through short term support which is now resistance near the 10-day moving average at 2.17. Target support is seen near the August lows at 2.03. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is turning negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is poised to generate a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory that points to consolidation.


Stockpiles Rose in Line with Expectations

Natural gas inventories came out in line with expectations, as production increases offset higher demand. The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that working gas in storage was 2,797 Bcf as of Friday, August 16, 2019. This represents a net increase of 59 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 58 Bcf increase according to a poll conducted by Estimize. Stocks were 369 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 103 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,900 Bcf. At 2,797 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. The trajectory remains positive which is keeping prices rangebound.

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