Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices edged lower but finished off session lows. The contract rebounded following the Department of energy’s inventory report. Expectations are for a 91 Bcf build, according to survey provider Estimize. There is no tropical disturbance active in the Atlantic Ocean over the next 48-hours that is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone. According to NOAA, the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through most of the mid-West and East Coast for the next 2-weeks.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved edged lower on Thursday after bouncing at support and rebounding into the close. Support is seen near the 50-day moving average of 4.91. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.39. Prices are oversold. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 18, at the oversold trigger level of 20. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal in oversold territory. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Inventories Rise In Line with Expectations

According to EIA estimates, natural gas in storage was 3,461 Bcf as of Friday, October 15, 2021. This represents a net increase of 92 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 91 Bcf build. Stocks were 458 Bcf less than last year at this time and 151 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,612 Bcf. At 3,461 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.