Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Surge as Inventories Slide

Key Insights

• Natural gas surged higher, rising 9% for the week.
• The weather is expected to be typical throughout most of the U.S.
• Natural gas arrivals at LNG terminals continue to impress.

On Tuesday, natural gas prices rallied more than 4% and went up nearly 9% for the week. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be average during the next 6-10 days and 8-14 days throughout most of the United States.

The EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended April at 1.6 trillion cubic feet, 17% below the five-year average. At the end of April, stocks were 190 billion cubic feet higher than at the end of March. This increase was below the five-year average due to below-normal temperatures that raised the demand for natural gas for heating amid relatively flat production.

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, natural gas prices surged higher. Prices appear to be poised to test target resistance is seen near the $8.99 level. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal.

Medium-term momentum is negative but points to consolidation. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in negative territory with a rising trajectory, meaning range-bound trade action.