Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Trade Sideways, Ahead of Inventory Report

Inventories are expected to rise by 66 Bcf
David Becker
Natural Gas


Natural gas prices edge higher but traded sideways ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Energy Information Administration. Expectations are for stockpiles to rise by 66 Bcf compared to last weeks actual result of 81 Bcf. Warmer than normal weather has been covering most of the east coast putting upward pressure on New York and Mid-Atlantic prices. There are no current storms in the Atlantic that have a chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Natural gas feedstocks to US LNG plants set a record last week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices traded sideways and held above support term support which is an upward sloping moving average near 2.34. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.43. Medium term momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs at the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The RSI (relative strength index) is printing a reading of 43, which is in the middle of the neutral range and reflects consolidation.

Natural gas feedstock deliveries to US liquefaction facilities set a new record last week, reaching 6.3 billion cubic feet per day on July 4 and July 7, 2019. They averaged 6.1 Bcf per day for the report week the highest weekly average to date according to the EIA. Flows to the newly commissioned Cameron Train 1 and Corpus Christi Train 2 increased, indicating that both trains have ramped up feedstock deliveries to full capacity.

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