Natural gas markets rallied rather significantly during the week, but found enough resistance at the $3.00 level to keep the market consolidating.
Natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the course of the trading week to slam into the $3.00 level. The $3.00 level course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. If we can break above the $3.00 level, then it’s possible that the market could go looking toward the $3.50 level, followed by the $5.00 level, which of course is my longer-term target.
On the other hand, if we do pull back from here and break the bottom of the weekly candlestick, then it’s possible that we could drop down to the $2.50 region, perhaps even lower. In that environment, I am more than willing to buy this market on that dip, because it will offer value in a market that has a cyclicality to it that opens up a bigger move during colder months. Furthermore, we have the situation in the European Union which is only getting worse, not better, so therefore I do think it’s probably only a matter time before we break out to the upside.
All things being equal, I do think that the lack of gas for the EU is going to drive this market higher later this year, especially as the Russian gas is almost certainly going to be impossible to import, and then of course we have the issue where the trans African pipeline is not being able to deliver gas to the European Union, at least not at the moment due to the fact that the government of Niger wants Westerners out, so this certainly means that we are going to have some issues.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.