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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas

Natural gas markets gapped lower to kick off the week, and then fell even further. Having said that, we have turned around to fill the gap on Thursday though, and now that could bring in fresh selling based upon typical technical analysis. The 50 week EMA sits just above, so that could also cause a bit of resistance as well. All things being equal, we should keep in the back of our minds that we are trading the February contract. With that being the case, the market is likely to see a lack of demand being an issue going forward. With that being the case, we are flipping over to the “selling season.”

NATGAS Video 04.01.21

The $2.00 level underneath will be important to pay attention to, due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and the scene of the breakout for earlier this year. I think any time we rally at this point in time you need to look at it as an opportunity to sell natural gas, because it is not that long before we start trading the March contract, which of course means that we are looking at higher temperatures in the United States. The fact that winter has not been cold enough to drive massive demand means that we could have a very ugly year ahead for natural gas. We are oversupplied in general, and we are starting to see more rigs deployed over the last month or so. If that continues to be the case, about the only thing that could help natural gas is perhaps US dollar depreciation.

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