Natural gas markets continue to build a bit of a basing pattern, but at this point in time it’s likely that we continue to see an attempt to break above the $3.00 level.
Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the course of the trading week, to reach down toward the $2.60 level. However, we have turned around to show signs of life, and therefore it looks like we will try to get to the $3.00 level above, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that has been resistance previously. We have been trading in a $1.00 level range for a while, and now I think we need to seriously consider the idea that the market is starting to look to the later part of the year, when the Europeans are going to have to do everything they can to replenish natural gas for the winter.
With that being said, this remains a “buy on the dips” situation, and therefore it’s likely that we have no interest in shorting this market. The $2.00 level will continue to be a hard floor in the market, therefore I think it’s probably only a matter of time before value hunters come in on any type of big breakdown. All things being equal, if the market were to break above the $3.00 level, then it’s likely that we could at least go to the $4.00 level, due to the fact that it is a “measured move.”
Ultimately, expect a lot of noise, as the natural gas markets are extraordinarily volatile under the best of circumstances, and as we worry about the supply in the European Union, it does add quite a bit of bullish pressure in this market, therefore I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we go along again.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.