The natural gas markets initially fell during the course of the week but then turned around to show signs of a hammer. At this point, the market is likely to continue to try to drive higher but this is all based upon a tropical storm hitting the Louisiana area more than anything else. This will be short-lived, but it also coincides nicely with the warmer temperatures anticipated for August. That being said, we still have a massive oversupply of natural gas out there so any rally at this point is probably going to be short-lived.
NATGAS Video 15.07.19
At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to build a short-term base but I think that the $2.60 level and of course the 50 week EMA both will offer a significant amount of resistance above. Signs of exhaustion after a rally should be nice selling opportunities, as this is a market that is to be sold and not bought. Perhaps this is more or less short covering, but quite frankly I just don’t see the longer-term risk to reward ratio working out in our favor if we try to buy down here. Alternately, if you are patient enough you should get a nice selling opportunity as this is not the time of year to see bullish natural gas prices typically. Signs of exhaustion will be jumped upon but until then it’s a matter of being patient.
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