Natural Gas Weekly Price Outlook – Natural Gas Recovers for the Week

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has shown itself to be somewhat negative during the week but has turned around to show a little bit of resiliency as well. We are hanging around the 50 week EMA and the 200 week EMA indicators, but we are just below the previous uptrend line. So, it’ll be interesting to see if we can break back above it. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will continue to favor sideways action with a little bit more of a downward tilt, mainly due to the fact that this time of year is typically pretty negative for natural gas.

We’re not really seeing a lot of heating demand, obviously, in the United States or Europe. And really, at this point in time, it comes down to whether or not we get a heat wave. Heat waves, of course, do demand more electricity, and that is quite often created by natural gas. So, with that being the case, we have to watch out. But as things stand right now, I think we’re basically in a consolidation area between the $4 level on the top and the $3 level on the bottom.

So, a bounce at this point for me, more likely than not, will end up being a buying opportunity from what I see. And with that, I would be looking at this as a market that I will let bounce and then I will short at the first signs of exhaustion. If we were to break $4, that changes everything. But right now, that doesn’t look very likely to happen. Breaking down below the $3 level could happen and that could open up a move down to $2.50 or so, but right now that’s not even what I’m looking for.

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