Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Geopolitics Lift Crude; Gas Slumps on Mild Weather

WTI Crude Oil Holds Gains on Geopolitical Tensions Despite Economic Drag

Light crude oil futures, or WTI, settled higher at $62.69 per barrel on Monday, gaining 20 cents, or 0.32%, as stalled nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran supported prices. Iranian officials stated that negotiations will falter unless the U.S. drops demands regarding uranium enrichment, effectively dimming the chances of sanctions being lifted. That makes a near-term boost in Iranian crude exports—previously estimated at 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day—unlikely.

However, upside in WTI was restrained by broader macro concerns, including a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody’s and weak Chinese economic data. Disappointing industrial output and retail sales figures from China added to demand-side concerns for the world’s top oil importer.

Technically, WTI remains below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $63.94. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 50.23, offering little conviction for bullish or bearish positioning. Key resistance lies at $63.96 and $66.00, while downside support stands near $60.00. Without a clear break above the SMA, further consolidation is likely.

Outlook: Cautiously bullish, with geopolitics lending support but economic signals limiting breakout potential.

Brent Crude Inches Higher but Faces Overhead Resistance

Brent crude futures closed at $65.54 per barrel, up 13 cents or 0.2%. Gains followed a similar path to WTI, lifted by concerns over a potential collapse in U.S.-Iran talks, which reduced the threat of additional Iranian barrels entering the global market. Analysts see any escalation in Middle East tensions as broadly supportive for Brent, given its closer exposure to global shipping routes and geopolitical chokepoints.

Yet, the Brent market was also weighed down by broader macroeconomic headwinds, including soft Chinese data and U.S. credit uncertainty. These factors have capped any rally and kept bullish enthusiasm in check.

From a technical standpoint, Brent remains below its 50-day SMA of $67.21. RSI currently sits at 51.23, suggesting a slight bullish tilt but lacking momentum for a breakout. Price action remains trapped below the $67.00–$68.00 resistance band, with near-term support around $63.00.

Outlook: Moderately bullish, contingent on continued geopolitical strain and a sustained move above key technical resistance.

Natural Gas Futures Tumble on Mild Weather and Demand Concerns

Natural gas futures plunged 6.7% to $3.111 per MMBtu on Monday as market sentiment turned sharply bearish due to a lack of meaningful early-summer demand. Weather models continued to forecast below-normal cooling degree days (CDDs) through early June, limiting any support from heat-driven consumption. Heating demand remains slightly above average, but this late in the season, it holds minimal impact on pricing.

Production levels are steady, and broader demand sentiment is being further undermined by concerns over renewed U.S. trade tariffs, which could pressure industrial gas use. Without a catalyst from either side of the balance sheet, the market remains vulnerable to further downside.

Technically, natural gas has broken below key support at $3.35, and now trades well below its 50-day SMA of $3.662. The current chart setup points to additional losses, with the next psychological support level sitting near $3.00. A daily close below this threshold could trigger another wave of selling.

Outlook: Bearish, driven by weak fundamentals, soft technical structure, and lack of seasonal demand support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.