Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Attempts Bull Wedge Breakout, Momentum Lacking

Breakout Struggles to Gain Traction

Gold broke out of a small bullish falling wedge on Thursday, yet follow-through strength was noticeably absent. A push above Wednesday’s high of $3,350 triggered the initial signal, carrying prices to $3,352 before resistance capped gains. At the same time, volume surged, confirming stronger demand, while gold briefly reclaimed the 20-Day and 50-Day moving averages at $3,344 and $3,348, respectively. Despite this progress, the breakout remains unconvincing without sustained momentum and a decisive move higher.

Breakout Validation Still Pending

The wedge pattern formed within a broader consolidation formation rather than a clear uptrend, which helps explain the muted response. For the breakout to be validated, gold must show improving momentum and consistent buying interest. Otherwise, a slow drift higher could indicate the move was a false signal. Key resistance remains nearby, and failure to build on Thursday’s advance would leave gold vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

Symmetrical Triangle in Control

A larger symmetrical triangle continues to frame the technical outlook, reflecting narrowing volatility as prices compress toward the apex. A decisive breakout above $3,435 would confirm the next bullish phase, while an earlier indication of strength could be seen on a move through $3,409. Adding to this structure is a rising ABCD pattern, with its 100% projection targeting $3,452 — just above the triangle’s bullish trigger zone. A breakout above these levels would mark a significant continuation of the broader uptrend.

Monthly Chart Perspective

On the broader monthly timeframe, August marks the fourth consecutive month where gold has traded within April’s wide range, when prices peaked near $3,500. Three of those months formed inside bars, highlighting reduced volatility and persistent indecision. Notably, closing prices for the past four months have clustered tightly between $3,288 and $3,303.

This narrow band has acted as a base of support, and a decisive monthly close above it would carry some technical weight. Such a move would align with the potential for an upside breakout from the ongoing triangle pattern, setting the stage for a test of higher resistance levels into September.

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