Natural gas gains ground as traders focus on favorable changes in weather forecasts and bet on a rebound from current levels.
A successful test of the resistance level at $3.20 – $3.25 will push natural gas towards the $3.40 level. In case natural gas manages to settle above $3.40, it will head towards the $3.60 level.
On the support side, a move below the nearest support level at $3.00 – $3.05 will open the way to the test of the next support at $2.75 – $2.80. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
WTI oil is under strong pressure as U.S. and Iran reached a deal. The U.S. and Iran agreed to an interim ceasefire for 60 days that will provide time to negotiation a comprehensive deal. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted.
President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would be completely open by Friday. He added that passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be toll-free. Earlier, Iran attempted to create a passage system that demanded payments from ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
The full text of the memorandum of understanding between U.S. and Iran would be released some time after Friday. It is not clear whether Trump will attend the signing of the memorandum of understanding, which will take place in Switzerland on Friday. At this point, Vice President JD Vance is expected to sign the deal on behalf of the U.S.
Israel’s operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon remains a major obstacle on the way to a comprehensive deal. However, markets ignore the risks of escalation in Lebanon and focus on the U.S. – Iran deal.
It should be noted that the interim deal does not address Iran’s nuclear program, which was the key reason for the military operation against the country.
Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle below the support level at $81.00 – $81.50. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will head towards the next support, which is located in the $76.50 – $77.00 range. RSI remains in the moderate territory despite the strong sell-off, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
Brent oil tests new lows as traders prepare for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent oil settled below the previous support at $86.00 – $86.50 and is trying to settle below the $83.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, Brent oil will move towards the nearest support, which is located in the $81.00 – $81.50 range. A successful test of the support at $81.00 – $81.50 will open the way to the test of the support at $77.00 – $77.50.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.