Natural Weekly Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Try to Bounce

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week as we are trying to find a little bit of a floor. Whether or not that actually plays out, we’ll just have to wait and see. But I think this is a market that’s trying to turn around the overall momentum and try to break back above the $3 level. That being said, I still think at this point, you’re more likely than not to see the market try to rally and then fail again. It’s not quite the time of year when traders are looking to pile into natural gas. And of course, temperatures in the United States are fairly mild at the moment, driving down demand of AC.

That being said, we’re probably getting somewhat closer when people start to think about the winter. And the question is now, with the Europeans buying $250 billion worth of US energy a year, someone would have to assume that natural gas is certainly part of it. So that might make this winter a little bit more profitable in logs. We’re just not there yet. That being said, I’m still looking to fade short-term rallies, but longer term, if we can break above $3.20, that could change my mind. Breaking below the bottom of the candlestick for this week could drop this market down to $2.50. Either way, I expect a lot of volatility, but that’s not really anything new for natural gas.

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