New Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF Hits the Market But Bearish Sentiment Persists

Dogecoin (DOGE) has booked a mild 0.2% gain since today’s session started despite the launch of a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) for this meme coin by Grayscale.

The ETF hype seems to be taking over Wall Street as the end of the government shutdown opened up the floodgates of a series of altcoin-linked listings.

This is the second ETF linked to Dogecoin to hit the market. The first one was the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE), whose assets under management (AUM) currently sit at $22 million.

Grayscale XRP Trust ETF Announcement – Source: X.com

Alongside Grayscale’s fund, Bitwise is also preparing to launch its own DOGE ETF this week, most probably on Wednesday, according to experts like Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg.

The meme coin category has not been the most favored this year, as top tokens including Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) have lost 54% and 62% of their value since the year started.

Meanwhile, other tokens like Bonk (BONK) and Pepe (PEPE) have experienced even stronger yearly losses exceeding 70%.

Rate Cut Probabilities Bounced Back Last Week

Before the October 10 flash crash, the market was expecting that meme coins would be the next to rise after BNB Coin (BNB) and Ethereum (ETH) hit new all-time highs.

However, only a handful of exotic tokens caught up in the hype, while well-established memes were left behind.

The launch of these ETFs linked to Dogecoin should catalyze a rally, but bearish sentiment has persisted despite an improvement in the macroeconomic landscape.

Last week, the head of the New York Federal Reserve asserted that a rate cut in December could still be on the table. These comments, alongside a positive jobs report, were enough to change the market’s odds of a rate cut in a heartbeat.

FedWatch’s Rate Cut Probabilities for December FOMC Meeting – Source: CME Group

Data from FedWatch shows that now nearly 79% of analysts believe that the Fed will lower rates in December, compared to 42% last week. This shift in the market’s perception, alongside with a bounce off a key support, could be setting the stage for a rebound for DOGE.

That said, it is still worth noting that the Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 12, meaning that the market remains heavily depressed.

DOGE Eyes $0.20 If The RSI Confirms a Bullish Outlook

The daily chart shows that DOGE broke below a long-dated ascending price channel, but seems to be temporarily finding support at the $0.14 level. This is the lowest that DOGE has gone since April this year.

DOGE/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

Trading volumes have increased as the token hit this mark, which could indicate that buying interest is rising.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains depressed as it sits near 30. Ideally, this momentum oscillator should rise above the 14-day moving average to confirm that the price trend has changed its course.

If we get a breakout below this support, the price could easily dive to $0.10, meaning a 31% downside risk. This bearish outlook would be confirmed if the price retests and rejects a move above the lower bound of the trend line shown in the chart.

Meanwhile, if this area holds, DOGE could first rise to $0.18 and then near its exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.20.