NZD Trading on Bullish Side of 50% – 61.8% Retracement Zone

The New Zealand Dollar is edging lower early Thursday, but remains within striking distance of it multi-month high at .6810, hit on February 23. The currency is proving resilient as high commodity prices and strength in domestic economies provided a buffer against geopolitical tensions.

At 04:17 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6776, down 0.0012 or -0.18%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending higher. A trade through the last main top at .6810 will change the main trend to up. A move through .6631 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is .6891 to .6529. The NZD/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at .6753 to .6710, making it support.

The short-term range is .6529 to .6810. Its retracement zone at .6669 to .6636 is the key support. If it fails, prices could plunge into multi-year lows.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the NZD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .6753.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6753 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the main top at .6810 will change the main trend to up. A move through the minor top at .6811 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the January 13 main top at .6891 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6752 will indicate the current rally has run out of steam. This could trigger a sharp break into the main 50% level at .6710.

Buyers could come in on the first test of .6710, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at .6669 to .6636.

A failure to hold .6636 could fuel the start of a prolonged move to the downside with potential main bottom targets at .6593, .6590 and .6529.