NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 13, 2015, 04:48 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD dipped 5 points to trade at 0.6542 as the US dollar continued to rally in the morning session. The kiwi touched

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped 5 points to trade at 0.6542 as the US dollar continued to rally in the morning session. The kiwi touched a month low against the Australian dollar after upbeat employment data across the Tasman pushed out expectations for an interest rate cut in Australia.

Later today, the Reserve Bank releases the latest monthly data on the amount of government bonds held by foreigners. In the afternoon session the focus will be on the release of US advance retail sales data and the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

A survey of 10 currency analysts predicted the kiwi would trade between 62.85 US cents and 67.50 cents this week. Eight expected the kiwi to fall; two said it would stay relatively unchanged while no-one picked a rise.

OMF’s Ive said the milk futures pricing were also weighing on the kiwi/Aussie cross-rate after strong jobs data yesterday bolstered demand for Australia’s currency, and sapped expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates again. The kiwi was little changed at 91.68 Australian cents at 5pm in Wellington from 91.72 cents yesterday, and is heading for a 0.8 percent weekly decline.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 16, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)			0.1%
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		-0.1%	-0.3%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		-0.2%	-1.2%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.2%
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		-5.00	-11.36