NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 16, 2015, 05:03 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD declined by 12 points to trade at 0.6528 after retail sales data was released. Core retail sales missed forecast

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD declined by 12 points to trade at 0.6528 after retail sales data was released. Core retail sales missed forecast but standard sales printed higher than expected. It was the strength of the US dollar that weighed the most heavily on the kiwi as traders moved to safe haven assets after the turmoil in Paris this weekend. Global focus has shifted to the war on terrorism and the global responses after the French were subjects of multiple coordinated attacks this weekend. Government data today showed New Zealand’s consumer spending rose faster than expected in the September quarter, led by a pick-up in car purchases, while a private survey showed services sector activity expanded at a slower pace in October.

Good news for New Zealand’s main stay came from dairy farmers as Fonterra Cooperative Group, the world’s largest dairy exporter, is finally starting to deliver better business returns which are meant to counter low farmgate payouts when global dairy prices are low.

The Auckland-based cooperative raised its forecast available payout range for this season by 5 cents as it cuts costs and boosts margins to record levels, even as milk volumes in New Zealand decline by 5 percent.

Fonterra has indicated the forecast dividend may be in the 35-to-40 cents per share range up from 25 cents last year, which disappointed many farmers who expected to gain more from the value- added side of the business when dairy input prices were down. The revision would mean a likely total payout to farmers of $4.95 to $5 per kilogram of milk solids after retentions, compared to $4.65 last season.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD		Core Retail Sales (QoQ)	1.0%	1.4%	0.0%
NZD		Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)	1.6%	1.3%	0.1%
JPY		GDP (YoY) (Q3)	-0.8%	-0.2%	-1.2%
JPY		GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.1%
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Oct)		-0.1%	-0.1%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	0.6%
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions		55.5	55.2
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment		6.0	1.9
USD	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)		1.9%	1.9%
USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	0.2%
USD	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.2%
USD	Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.2%