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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD was flat today at 0.6744 after traders monitored the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. The RBA held
Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD was flat today at 0.6744 after traders monitored the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. The RBA held rates and policy and upgraded the outlook which helped the kiwi. Kiwi traders are now looking for the RBNZ meeting. New Zealand house values rose 14 percent in the year ended Oct. 31, the fastest annual pace since March 2006, as the Auckland property market continued to urge despite moves by policymakers to try and slow it down.
Separately, the ANZ commodity price index showed prices for locally produced raw materials rose for a second month, led by the recent rebound in dairy prices.
Traders will be watching the upcoming GlobalDairyTrade auction for a steer on dairy prices, with futures market pricing indicating a decline of between 5 and 10 percent.
The US dollar is trading a bit in the red in the Asian session but remains strong with the Fed meeting not scheduled until December, but the NFP jobs report on Friday keeps traders on focus.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
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|
|
Japan – Culture Day |
||||||
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Nov) |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
||
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
|
|
|
|||
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
USD |
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
|
|
4.100M |
||
|
NZD |
Unemployment Rate (Q3) |
|
6.0% |
5.9% |
||
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
||
|
AUD |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
|
-3.000B |
-3.095B |
||
|
CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Oct) |
|
50.8 |
50.5 |
||
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
|
-0.7% |
-0.9% |
||
|
EUR |
German Services PMI (Oct) |
|
55.2 |
55.2 |
||
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
||
|
USD |
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks |
|
|
|
||
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
|
180K |
200K |
||
|
USD |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
|
-41.10B |
-48.30B |
||
|
USD |
Services PMI (Oct) |
|
54.6 |
54.4 |
||
|
USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies |
|
|
|
||
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
|
3.376M |
||
|
USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov
Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov
Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs
Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov
Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov
Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction
Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction
Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL
Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction
Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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