Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Bearish Crude Signals and Bullish Gas Momentum

Oil prices dropped as traders reacted to reports of a renewed U.S. effort to end the war in Ukraine. The proposed framework would require Kyiv to cede territory and surrender its weapons. The news raised concerns that a potential peace deal could alter the balance of future oil supply.

Russian oil flows could increase if the conflict ends, potentially worsening the global oversupply. Therefore, prices may slide into the low $50s as previously sanctioned Russian barrels return to the market.

Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on major Russian producers add pressure, but investors are focusing more on fundamentals as geopolitical risks begin to ease. However, US crude stockpiles dropped more than expected, which shows strong refinery activity and exports.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for WTI crude oil (CL) shows that the price is consolidating below the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs, indicating negative price action. The recent consolidation around the $60 area increases uncertainty for the next move. A break below the $58 region could push the price toward the $55 area.

However, a drop below $55 would likely trigger a stronger decline in the oil market. A breakout above $66 would invalidate the current bearish outlook. Moreover, the RSI is consolidating below the mid-level, indicating a negative trend.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows consolidation below the $62 level, with repeated failures to break above it. The price action remains bearish, as highlighted by the red downward trendline.

While the consolidation just below $62 introduces uncertainty, a breakout above this level could push prices toward the $65.50 region. Conversely, a break below the $58 area would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend in the oil market.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Bullish Momentum

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that prices continue to trend higher after finding support around the $4.25 area. The overall trend remains bullish, as the price had previously broken above the $3.50 region.

The emergence of a cup-and-handle pattern, followed by a retracement toward long-term support and a rebound toward the $5.00 region, suggests a potential shift toward a stronger long-term uptrend in natural gas prices.

Another daily chart for natural gas shows strong bullish price action forming through a rounding bottom pattern below the $3.50 region. As the price broke above $3.50 and the 200-day SMA, momentum has strengthened. The 50-day SMA is now crossing above the 200-day SMA, confirming a strong resurgence in natural gas prices.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Positive Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows strong consolidation below the 4.700 region, signaling bullish price action and the potential for a breakout. A confirmed move above this level could open the door for further upside in the coming days.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for the US dollar index shows a potential bounce from the black trendline near the 99 level, with a possible move toward 100.50. A break above 100.50 could push the index higher toward the 102 level. However, a break below 98 would likely send the index down toward the 96.50 region.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows strong consolidation between the 96.50 and 100.50 levels. A breakout above or below this range will likely determine the next significant move.

The appearance of an inverted head and shoulders pattern near the 96.50 level increases the likelihood of further upside. However, the broader trend remains negative despite the strong long-term support at 96.50.