Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bounce Faces Long-Term Pressure

Oil prices rebounded from the support zone after President Trump announced that India would stop buying Russian oil. This move removes a major buyer of sanctioned crude from the market. As a result, supply pressure on global oil markets may ease, supporting higher prices.

This announcement heightened geopolitical tensions and signalled stronger U.S. efforts to cut Russia’s energy revenue. If China follows India’s lead, Russian oil could face deeper market isolation. This outcome would likely tighten global supply and push oil prices higher in the near term. Despite the rebound, the overall picture for the oil market remains bearish as the technical indicators point to further downside.

However, U.S. crude inventories increased sharply last week, along with gasoline stocks. These builds indicate weak domestic demand, which may limit further gains in oil prices. Investors will now watch U.S. inventory data closely to assess demand strength.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart from WTI crude oil (CL) shows that the price is consolidating after breaking below the $60 level, showing negative price action. Any rebound toward the $60–$64 area may be capped and followed by another downturn. Immediate support lies at $55.50, and a break below this level could trigger strong selling pressure in oil prices.

Despite the breakout below the $60 support on the daily chart, WTI oil remains under pressure. The weekly chart shows the price is still consolidating within the long-term support zone between $55 and $60. Although oil has broken below the $60 level, a decisive break below $55 is needed to trigger strong selling pressure in the market.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for WTI oil shows that the price is consolidating within a tight range and displaying negative price action after breaking below the $61.60 level. However, the formation of a descending channel after the breakout suggests that any rebound toward the $60–$62 region could serve as a selling opportunity in the oil market.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price is consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs and is awaiting the next breakout. A drop below the $2.50 level would trigger selling pressure in natural gas. On the other hand, a breakout above the 200-day SMA near $3.50 would signal further upside toward the $4 to $5 range.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price has hit strong resistance at the trendline near the $3.50 to $3.60 level and is now correcting lower. Immediate support lies between $2.60 and $2.90. A breakdown below $2.60 would likely trigger strong selling pressure in natural gas prices.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Negative Price Action

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the price has found resistance near the 99 level and is moving lower. A break below 96.50 would likely trigger a strong decline toward the 90 level. Conversely, a breakout above 100.50 could shift the outlook and neutralise the current downtrend.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the US dollar index shows a rebound from the 96.50 support level, where an inverted head and shoulders pattern has formed. However, the index failed to break above the 99.20 level and has formed a double top pattern instead. This suggests that the index may move lower in the coming days.