Oil Forecast for the Week of December 19, 2011

Light Sweet Crude

The CL contract fell fairly hard on the week as the “risk off” trade has come back with a vengeance. The Dollar got a boost for most of the week, and the commodities all got thumped for it. The $95 level got broken, and the market suddenly looks very weak. The $90 level looks to be supportive below, and this is where we think the market is trying to reach. The next couple of weeks will be very low volume, so the moves could be exaggerated. In fact, this time of year you can often say that the more exaggerated the move, the more tempting it will be to fade…which is what we will do.

Brent

Brent markets fell extremely hard this past week as the $105 level was smashed though. The support below can be found at the $100 and $95 level should be even more supportive. The market looks like it is going to try and reach that $95 level, as the recent fall actually broke below the neckline for a head and shoulders, and the measurement does go down to that mark. We are selling rallies.