Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Straddling Mid-Point as Geopolitics and Peace Talks Collide

Crude Oil Steadies as Geopolitics and Peace Talks Pull in Opposite Directions

Light crude is drifting lower Tuesday, hovering around the $69.23 level that’s been the midpoint of the two-month range. Buyers aren’t rushing in — but sellers aren’t pressing hard either. The market’s caught between competing headlines, and it shows.

At 10:51 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.25, down $0.07 or -0.12%.

Supply Risks Keep a Floor Under Prices

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure ramped up over the weekend, and the market’s taking notice. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium only just resumed shipments from one mooring point at its Black Sea terminal after a major attack on November 29. Russian-flagged vessels have also been targeted, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile supply picture.

Then there’s Venezuela. Trump’s weekend comments about closing airspace around the South American producer sparked fresh jitters. It’s vague enough to leave traders guessing — but specific enough to matter. Venezuela pumps serious barrels, and any escalation there adds to the geopolitical risk premium that’s been building over the past few sessions.

But Peace Talks Are Capping the Upside

Here’s the other side of the trade. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are meeting Putin today to discuss a potential path to ending the war in Ukraine. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev will also be in the room. Nobody’s expecting a breakthrough — these things drag on — but even the hint of de-escalation raises a question the market doesn’t love: what happens if Russian crude flows freely again?

Analysts at PVM flagged it directly. A peace deal could eventually mean more Russian oil and products hitting the market, even if the process takes time. That’s enough to keep bulls from getting too aggressive, even with supply risks flashing elsewhere.

Traders Eye $69.23 as the Line in the Sand

The technicals are clean. A sustained hold above $69.23 opens the door to the 50-day moving average at $70.06 — a level that’s capped every rally since late October. Punch through there, and the 200-day at $71.08 comes into view. That would be a sign of strength.

On the downside, if buyers can’t defend the midpoint, sellers will likely press toward the 61.8% support at $68.44. Below that, the swing low at $67.10 is the last line before things get messier.

Caught in the Crossfire — What Breaks the Stalemate?

The market wants direction, but it’s not getting it yet. Geopolitical premiums are holding prices up, peace talk hopes are holding them down, and crude is stuck in the middle — literally. Reaction to that $69.23 pivot will set the tone for the day. Traders looking for a decisive move may need to wait for clearer signals from Moscow — or another unexpected headline to tip the balance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.