WTI Recovers but Weekly Losses Remain Heavy
Light crude oil futures climbed Friday, rebounding from an early dip to $63.19, just above the June 24 low of $62.69. That $62.69 level remains a critical downside trigger, marking the lowest point since U.S. strikes on Iran and a potential launchpad for accelerated selling if breached.
The market is hovering around the minor 50% retracement at $64.13, a price pivot that could dictate intraday sentiment. Yet, upside progress is capped by the 50-day moving average at $65.30 and the longer-term pivot at $65.38. Staying below both keeps sellers in control, signaling underlying weakness despite today’s recovery.
At 11:00 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $64.39, up $0.51 or +0.80%.
OPEC, Tariffs, and Global Politics Pressure Oil Prices Forecast
WTI is still set to close the week down 4.9%, with Brent off 4.3% — the steepest declines since late June. The selloff has been driven by a tariff-fueled demand outlook deterioration. Fresh U.S. tariffs on multiple trading partners took effect Thursday, stoking fears of slower global growth and weaker crude demand, ANZ Bank noted.
Adding to the uncertainty, the Kremlin confirmed that President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet in the coming days. The potential diplomatic breakthrough raises speculation of eased sanctions on Russian energy — a development that could bring more barrels to the market. Russian equities rallied on the news, but crude traders remain cautious about real progress.
Geopolitical Risks and U.S. Sanctions Threats Keep Bulls in Check
Trump’s tariff threats against India over its Russian oil purchases, coupled with the possibility of similar measures on China, have rattled market sentiment. China remains Russia’s largest crude buyer, meaning any disruption could significantly alter trade flows. Analysts, however, doubt that the upcoming talks will yield a breakthrough, noting both sides’ firm positions on Ukraine.
PVM’s Tamas Varga warned that the U.S. could still follow through on secondary sanctions against countries dealing in Russian energy, a move that would inject fresh volatility into oil markets. Such sanctions could tighten supply in some regions while creating dislocation in global crude pricing.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
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See all Brent Oil forecastsMarket Forecast: Bearish Bias Persists
While intraday technicals show WTI trying to stabilize above $63.19, the broader chart structure and fundamental market backdrop still point to a bearish bias.
Resistance near $65.30–$65.38 remains formidable, and a failure to reclaim it will keep sellers in control.
A decisive break below $62.69 could trigger sharper losses, particularly if trade disputes and geopolitical risks intensify.
Traders should prepare for choppy but downside-leaning price action into next week unless an unexpected U.S.–Russia agreement alters the supply-demand balance.
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