Oil News: WTI Futures Eye Breakout as 50-Day Average Shapes Oil Outlook

WTI Tests 50-Day Moving Average as Traders Sort Real Buying from Short-Covering

WTI Crude is sitting right in the “sweet spot” — that patch on the daily chart where the market either proves itself or gets smacked back down. Light crude futures are pressing right into the 50-day moving average, a level that’s capped every rally since late October.

Buyers have pushed price from Friday’s close at $56.52 up to Wednesday’s high at $58.75, but the market still hasn’t shown whether that run was driven by real money or just shorts ringing the bell.

Oil Prices Forecast Hinges on the 50-Day Moving Average Test

This is the kind of setup traders pay attention to. The holiday rally had some help from geopolitical headlines — tanker seizures off Venezuela and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets — and that pulled buyers off the sidelines. But the question now is whether the market has enough fuel to punch cleanly through 50-day moving average resistance. Sellers have used this zone to lean on the market for months, and they’re likely waiting again.

Under the surface, positioning still feels cautious. Some traders chased the move on the headlines; others simply covered shorts rather than piling into a fresh bullish stance. If buyers don’t follow through here, that’ll show up quickly — the market hasn’t rewarded hesitant longs lately.

Crude Oil News Today: Breakout Zone Defined by Fibonacci and Moving Average Resistance

If WTI can clear the 50-day moving average with conviction, the roadmap is pretty straightforward. The first upside marker is the Fibonacci level at $59.51. A break there would shift attention to the 200-day moving average at $60.52 — a level that could attract more systematic buying if price gets anywhere close.

But the real ceiling is higher up. The long-term 50% retracement at $63.55 has been a problem for years, and every rally that’s stalled has run into that wall sooner or later. Nobody’s calling for a push there yet, but it stays on the chart as the bigger-picture test for any sustained recovery.

Oil Prices Projections: Can This Rally Stick?

Bottom line: the market wants to push higher, but it hasn’t proved it has the buying power. A clean break above the 50-day moving average would put the bulls in control for the first time in months. Fail here, and sellers will likely press quickly, arguing the recent run was mostly short-covering.

For now, the bias leans cautiously higher — but only if buyers step up and take out that first layer of resistance. Without that, this rally is vulnerable.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.