WTI Crude Holds Firm Near Resistance as Supply Risks Bolster Bullish Sentiment
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled higher on Friday, extending weekly gains and closing in a strong technical position near key resistance levels. The market is drawing strength from fresh geopolitical risks and renewed supply discipline among major producers, reinforcing bullish sentiment despite a prevailing downtrend on moving averages.
WTI Oil Prices Forecast: Buyers Eye Break Above $68.97 Pivot
WTI futures closed at $68.28 per barrel, up 0.31% on the day and 1.64% for the week. Price action ended just below the critical pivot resistance at $68.97, a level traders are closely watching. A clean break above this threshold could accelerate upside momentum toward the 200-day moving average at $70.10 and further to the 50-day moving average at $71.10. While technical resistance is expected on the first test, the current upside bias suggests momentum is building for a potential breakout.
To the downside, initial support is seen at $66.83. A failure there would expose the minor low at $66.09 and the more significant bottom at $65.01. Although the trend remains technically bearish, a sustained move above the 50-day moving average at $71.10 would mark a critical shift in market sentiment.
Iran Sanctions Tighten Global Supply Outlook
Fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian crude exports added bullish pressure. Notably, the sanctions included for the first time an independent Chinese refiner, increasing the likelihood of enforcement. Analysts at ANZ Bank project Iranian exports could drop by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) due to these tighter restrictions. Kpler estimated Iran’s February exports at over 1.8 million bpd, though cautioned that actual volumes could be lower due to vessel obfuscation practices.
OPEC+ Plans Target Overproduction, Offset April Supply Hike
Further upside support came from a new OPEC+ agreement unveiled Thursday. Seven member nations will implement monthly production cuts ranging from 189,000 to 435,000 bpd, continuing through June 2026. These compensatory cuts are aimed at counterbalancing prior overproduction and cushioning against the group’s upcoming April output increase of 138,000 bpd, which reverses a portion of earlier curbs.
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See all Brent Oil forecastsCrude Oil Market Outlook: Bullish Breakout on the Horizon
Despite the downward trend on moving averages, WTI is holding a bullish near-term structure. Geopolitical supply constraints and OPEC+ discipline provide strong fundamental backing. A confirmed breakout above $68.97 would likely trigger buying interest, targeting $70–$71 in the short term. As long as WTI holds above $66.83, the bias remains upward, with the market poised for a test of major resistance levels.
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