Oil News: WTI Holds Support While Ukraine Peace Talks Dominate Oil Outlook

Crude Oil Holds the Line as Traders Test Key Support — What’s Next for the Oil Prices Forecast?

Light crude is treading water on Tuesday, nearly flat after an early dip that briefly tagged a one-week low. Yesterday’s rejection at the 50-day moving average continues to hang over the market, and price is still camped inside the short-term retracement zone between the 50% level at $59.23 and $58.44. Buyers haven’t thrown in the towel, but they’re not pressing either. For now, it’s a waiting game.

At 11:41 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.08, up $0.20 or +0.34%.

WTI Stalls as Ukraine Talks and Fed Outlook Keep Traders Cautious

The broader crude market is soft, carrying over Monday’s 2% slide. Supply worries resurfaced after Iraq restored output at Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 field, a major source of crude. At the same time, traders are keeping one eye on Ukraine peace discussions and the other on the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.

The market isn’t taking big bets until it knows whether negotiations move closer to a deal or fall apart altogether. A breakdown could spark fresh buying, while any hint of Russian barrels returning to the global market would likely pressure prices. For now, crude is sitting in a tight range — and traders seem content to let headlines steer the next swing.

Oil Prices Projections Lean on Supply Signals and IEA Guidance

Positioning is cautious. G7 and EU discussions around shifting from a price cap on Russian crude to a full maritime services ban add another layer of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, traders are watching the upcoming IEA report for clarity on supply. The agency has repeatedly highlighted surplus risk ahead, and if December’s release keeps that theme alive, sellers may press WTI toward the broader range support flagged by analysts near $57.50–$56.80.

That aligns with the technical floor already in play: if buyers don’t defend the retracement zone, the November 25 main bottom at $57.10 is back on the table.

Crude Oil News Today: Fed Cut Expectations Offer Only Modest Support

Markets are pricing an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut on Wednesday. Lower rates usually help demand, but traders aren’t treating it as a game-changer here. With talk of an oversupplied market persisting — especially into the IEA’s longer-range view — the idea of a sustained bounce still feels like a stretch unless fundamentals shift.

Short-term support may hold if the Fed delivers, but buyers need more than a rate cut to challenge the ceiling created by the 50-day moving average.

Bottom Line: Bias Still Soft Unless Buyers Reclaim the 50-Day Moving Average

WTI isn’t falling apart, but the tone is heavy. If sellers push through $58.44, a run toward $57.10 becomes a real possibility. On the flip side, a move back above the 50% retracement at $59.23 would show buyers stepping in — but the market doesn’t turn constructive unless price breaks cleanly above the 50-day moving average.

Until then, the oil prices forecast leans bearish, with rallies likely sold and the retracement zone acting as the pivot for near-term trade.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.