Brent crude oil recovered to around $109.78 a barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday as the risk of supply in the Middle East returned to focus. Yemen’s Houthis claimed fresh attacks on Saudi energy sites on Monday that include Yanbu and Shaybah. But the Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claims.
In my view, the threat to supplies in the Gulf remains the most important driver of the oil price outlook in the near term. Any confirmed damage to production or export facilities could reduce the availability of supply and push prices higher.
But the hopes of more Russian fuel exports could limit gains. Brent settled slightly lower on Monday as traders assessed the US sanctions waiver against the risk of supply in the Gulf. The waiver could support additional Russian fuel exports, but the implementation and duration remain uncertain.
In my view, Brent could retest Monday’s high if the fears of supply deepen. More Russian fuel reaching buyers and safer shipping in the Gulf would increase the chance of deeper pullback. Until then, the uncertainty of supply could keep oil prices elevated.
WTI Oil Price Forecast: $106 Breakout Could Open the Way to $110
From a technical perspective, WTI oil prices remain in a strong bullish trend as seen in the monthly chart below. The price produced a low in July 2026 at $67.04 and rebounded higher.
After a strong recovery in September, prices again continued to rally higher towards the key resistance of $106. The price has gained nearly 9% in October so far, and the constructive price action indicates that prices may rally towards $106 in the short term.
A monthly close above $106 will open the way for further upside towards the $125-$130 region. The RSI remains above the midline and continues to trend higher, which suggests more upside in the next few days.
The 4-hour chart for WTI oil also shows that prices remain constructive in the short term. The price has formed rounding bottom patterns since June 2026.
The price has turned higher from the $87 support and looks to rally towards the $104-$106 resistance in the short term. A break above $104-$106 will likely push prices towards the $110 area.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
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See all Brent Oil forecastsBrent Oil Price Forecast: $110 Breakout Could Open the Way to $120
The daily chart for Brent oil also shows constructive price action as the price has formed a bottom at $70.86 in July 2026. Brent has also formed rounding bottom patterns in August and September. The price is now consolidating near the neckline of the cup pattern around $110.
The strong consolidation around this level during the past three days suggests that Brent oil may trade higher towards the $120 area in the next few days.
The weekly chart for Brent crude oil also shows constructive price action, as prices have formed positive weekly candles during the past three weeks and continue to trend higher above the $100 area.
The $100 level in Brent oil remains the key level and acts as pivotal support in the Brent oil market. The immediate resistance in Brent oil remains the $120 area. A break above $120 will push prices towards the $125 to $135 region.
Bottom Line
Oil prices retain a bullish outlook as risks to supplies in the Gulf keep traders cautious. WTI oil needs to break above $104-$106 to open the way towards $110. Brent needs to clear $110 to strengthen the case for a move towards $120, while $100 remains the key support. Further supply disruptions could support these breakouts by increasing the risk of shortages. But more Russian fuel exports and safer shipping in the Gulf could ease supply concerns and trigger a pullback. In my view, the outlook remains constructive but both markets need to clear resistance to confirm further gains.
Read more: WTI and Brent Ease as US Weighs Tanker Sanctions Relief
