Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Stock Market Weakness Weighing on Crude Prices

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading lower on Wednesday, pressured by renewed concerns over future demand following the release of a report showing a slowdown in China’s factory activity. Traders are also expressing worries about rising U.S. oil production. Stock market weakness and concerns over heightened volatility are also weighing on prices.

At 0818 GMT, February WTI crude oil is trading $44.71, down $0.70 or -1.54% and March Brent crude oil is at $52.97, down $0.83 or -1.49%.

In China, a private survey showed manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 19 months in December. This is further proof that the lingering trade dispute between the United States and China is having a negative impact on China’s economy.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.7 from 50.2 in November, its first contraction since May 2017. Earlier in the week on Monday, official manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in activity for the month of December as the sector contracted for the first time in more than two years, dropping below the critical 50 level.

U.S. Production on the Rise

On January 1, an OPEC-led group including Russia began cutting output by 1.2 million barrels per day in an effort to trim the global supply and stabilize prices. This move is not expected to have an immediate impact on prices. In the meantime, traders will continue to focus on U.S. output, which rose to an all-time high of 11.537 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released on Monday. That put the U.S. ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s biggest oil producer.

Forecast

Given the uncertainty over US-China trade relations, Brexit, as well as political instability and conflict in the Middle East, it’s hard to build a case for a rally. Furthermore, it’s too early to judge the impact of the OPEC-led production cuts and U.S. production is bearish.

With this in mind, we’re looking for further pressure on prices over the near-term. Prices are also being controlled by the heightened volatility in the stock market. Today’s early weakness indicates we could see renewed selling pressure after a three day counter-trend rally. This may be enough to drag oil prices down to last week’s lows.