Only One Level Stands in The Way of $53k for Bitcoin
On Monday, we sighted the low of the day which matched the lowest trading point Bitcoin has seen in the past four months. This low at roughly $39,600 in the spot market was also the intra-day low hit on September 21st and represents the end of a consolatory phase in BTC ending and rally mode to new territory beginning.
Technically and historically, BTC does have resistance right at the high reached today. If BTC can overcome this level we could see it test resistance all the way up to $53,000 in the coming weeks. The resistance it first must overcome is at $44,300. This level matches up with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement stretches from the low of 2021 just below $29k up top the all-time high at $69k (in some charts we have this retracement reversed so this point will be seen as 61.8%). Breaking above this price point has sent Bitcoin rallying to higher prices three times in the past and A lot of interesting insights can be gleaned from studying what BTC does at this level.
Of the three previous times, BTC has broken above $44k (February 8th, August 21st, October 1st), the way that the market reacts and the momentum as indicated by the RSI at the time. What first stands out other than each occurrence served as a jumping-off point to higher pricing is that they all consolidated briefly below $50,000 before climbing much higher before correcting. When one adds the RSI, it becomes apparent that each time the level of $44k is taken out the RSI has been somewhat lower than the previous instance. And if we get a break above the $44,000 level in the next day or two it would occur at an even more oversold level according to the RSI than it has the previous three times it crossed this threshold.
Of the three dates mentioned above (02.08, 08.21, 10.01), the most significant most parabolic move came on October 1st of last year pricing would rise by $9,000 in the three weeks. This occasion shares many criteria that define our current market such as trading below the level of $44k for approximately one week’s time and having an RSI that had just recovered from a local bottom.
In conclusion, I feel it safe to assume we have found a bottom in BTC at $39k and have begun to return to the bulls, so we expect higher pricing, especially if we trade over $44k if we surpassed that level without so much as retesting at afterward than we could be off to the races and could even see a new all-time high.