Organic Corn Prices Might be Driven by the COVID-19 Spread in Turkey

Organic corn prices could experience upward momentum driven by a shutdown in Turkey. Organic corn prices have been trading under pressure but have been steady of late according to The jacobsen. This comes as the convention corn market implodes. Conventional corn prices on the CBOT broke down today and are poised to test 4-year lows at $3 per bushel. For organic corn traders, the outlook remains bleak, but there is a fly in the ointment that could buoy organic corn prices.

According to reports, Turkey is on shaky ground, as fast-rising coronavirus cases threaten to plunge an already fragile economy into further despair. Turkey is one of the few European countries that have yet to implement a nationwide lockdown, in favor of keeping their economy going. Unfortunately, Turkey is in a particularly bad place to weather a pandemic. Self-isolation is voluntary throughout the country but non-essential business is closed.

Reports show that Turkey began to see an acceleration in COVID-19 cases that increased to 4,000 cases per day as of April 8. The first case of COVID-19 was reported on March 11. Total cases are now more than 65,000.

What a Shutdown in Turkey Would Mean

A shutdown of Turkey’s economy and its ports would likely have a significant impact on the US organic corn market. During the balance of the 2019/2020 season, based on historical deliveries, the US is expected to receive approximately 4.3-million bushels of organic cracked corn imported into the United States from Turkey.

If these shipments, which are scheduled from May to September, do not arrive, then the overhang of organic corn, which remains in storage will evaporate. In turn, this could push prices higher. The carryover, which is now expected to be more than 2-million bushels, according to The Jacobsen, would completely disappear. You can see our forecast based on these projections on The Jacobsen weekly market intelligence.