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Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 3, 2015, 10:32 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold is basically direction less today moving between small gains and losses. Gold is trading at 1092.60. Silver is flat at

Gold Rises upon Market Uncertainty

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum
Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is basically direction less today moving between small gains and losses. Gold is trading at 1092.60. Silver is flat at 14.675 and Platinum is down $6.35 at 978.65. With economic growth around the world slowing and expectations of a rise in US interests by the end of the year, the dollar is strengthening – making gold less attractive. That has led some to predict that gold prices could fall to as low as $750 an ounce. That is a far cry from the $1920 it hit during the financial crisis.

As commodity prices collapse, it now becomes apparent that China’s three-decade economic rise has been the catalyst for the rise of many nations such as Australia and Brazil. The failure of those nations to invest and find new sources of growth has also been exposed by China’s economic slowdown. So, after hitching a ride on China’s boom, can commodity-exporting nations avoid recession?

With gold prices at a five-year low, you would think that some of the world’s biggest consumers would be rushing out to buy the yellow metal. 

Money managers stayed net-short on bullion for a second week, after going bearish for the first time since the U.S. government data begins in 2006. The value of exchange-traded products tracking gold slumped $6 billion last month, the most since September, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

With prices stuck near a five-year low, traders are turning their back on gold amid muted inflation and a resilient U.S. economy. Since about 40 percent of what’s mined or recycled annually gets sold as coins or bars, shriveling demand from speculators could mean a prolonged bear market. Morgan Stanley says investment buying will keep dropping through at least 2018.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Canada – Civic Holiday

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

47.8

48.3

48.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

51.8

51.5

51.5

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

51.9

51.6

51.4

   

 

Gold(15 minutes)20150803062032

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Jul)

 

58.4

58.1

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 04 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale (Reserve date)

Aug 04 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2025 Gilt

Aug 05 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Oct 2020

Aug 05 11:30 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

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