Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold saw no action after gains in the Asian session and is holding at 1092.00 with really nothing on the calendar to move as many investors along with Goldman expect prices to continue to fall into December. Silver added 42 points taking its clues from gold traders but remains in the mid 14.50 price level. Platinum was flat at 915.20.

While the market braces for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006, a consensus is forming at the European Central Bank to take the interest rate it charges banks to park money deeper into negative territory in December, in a move that could weaken the euro and push up inflation.

Lonmin priced its $407 million share issue at a 94 percent discount as the platinum miner fights for survival in the face of low prices and after knocking $1.8 billion off the value of its assets.

The precious metal saw heavy selling pressure on Friday, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said US employers in all sectors of the economy with the exception of the farming industry added 271 000 jobs in October, a figure far beyond what analysts had projected. It has been the most considerable gain in jobs since December 2014, when 329 000 job positions were added. September’s figure has been revised down to 137 000 from a job gain of 142 000 reported previously. At the same time, the rate of unemployment fell 0.1% to reach 5.0% in October, or the lowest level since April 2008. The strong employment numbers may bolster the view that the Federal Reserve Bank will take action and hike borrowing costs at its final meeting for the year on December 15th-16th.

Rate hike prospects tend to have a strong bearish effect on gold, due to increased appetite for higher-yielding assets.

During her testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the US economy was “performing well”, while an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in December was a “live possibility”, if macroeconomic conditions remained on track.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 11:00 Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 11:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov