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Gold Price Forecast: Strong ISM Data Pressures XAUUSD Near $4,000

Gold Price Forecast: Strong ISM Data Pressures XAUUSD Near $4,000

By
Muhammad Umair
Updated: Aug 4, 2026, 08:46 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Strong US manufacturing data has increased expectations for tighter Fed policy.
  • Upcoming US employment and services data could determine gold’s next move.
  • Gold must break below $3,950 or above $4,200 to establish a clearer direction.

Gold (XAU) prices remain under pressure near $4,000 after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 and strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy. In my view, high Treasury yields may keep gold within the tight range in the short term while the $3,950 support remains critical. This article examines the latest and upcoming US data, Fed outlook and technical levels that may shape the next move in gold.