Brent is pressing $96 and the supply story behind this rally just got worse. Goldman Sachs says less than half of pre-war Gulf crude flows are making it through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s backup route through the Red Sea is now under Houthi blockade. Diesel is tightening on top of all of it as Russian refinery damage chokes off fuel supply. The only bear case left is a ceasefire that neither side has accepted.