Crude is hanging on to its war premium while the Gulf ships more oil than at any point since the fighting started. On paper, those two things shouldn’t go together. They do because of how the oil is getting out. It’s being rerouted, passed ship to ship off the coast of Oman and pushed through a Strait of Hormuz that is still one escalation away from trouble. Traders aren’t calling that normal supply.
Oil News: Gulf Exports Surge, but Hormuz Risk Keeps Crude Premium Alive
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Key Points:
- Middle East crude exports reached a war high in September but remained about 3.2 million bpd below February levels.
- Rerouting and ship-to-ship transfers are moving barrels, but traders are not treating those flows as a return to normal supply.
- WTI needs to clear $98.01 and Brent needs to take out $101.24 before buyers can regain short-term control.