US 10-Year Yield, AUD/USD, DAX and ZW Forecasts – Markets Moving in Various Places After Weekend Impasse

US 10-Year Yield Technical Analysis

The US 10-year yield is where I start yet again during the session, as of course, as long as there are a lot of concerns about risk appetite, we have to pay attention to this. You’ll note that we are well above the 4.30 level, a level that has been important for some time, although we have not broken out of the range that we have been in. So, in other words, what this tells me is we’re more risk-averse during the session but not necessarily catastrophically so, and in this environment, I lean more towards risk-off behavior.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has gapped lower, filled that gap and now looks like it’s drifting a little bit lower. I’ll be watching the US 10-year yield because if we continue to go higher there, then I’m looking to short this pair. The Australian dollar has gapped lower only to turn around and fill that gap, but we’re starting to drift again towards the downside.

If the 10-year yield in the United States continues to rise, then I’ll be looking to short the Aussie dollar, perhaps aiming towards the 0.6950 level, right around where the 50-day EMA currently sits. If we can break down below there, then the 0.6850 level is your next target. To the upside, we could go as high as 0.7150, but I think that’s going to take some type of Herculean effort in this type of environment, with the war not being concluded.

DAX Technical Analysis

The DAX in Germany looks to me like it could be a shorting opportunity right around the 23,300 level. I’d be looking for 300 euros; I wouldn’t look for anything more than that. The 23,000-euro level could be a target. If we rally from here, we have quite a bit of resistance all the way up to the 200-day EMA so either we break down and I get short, or I probably ignore it at least for a day or 2 as we try to sort out whether or not we can continue with the somewhat upbeat outlook we’ve had over the last couple of weeks.

Wheat (ZW) Technical Analysis

Finally, wheat. Wheat is going to be a big story in the next few months, and it looks like the smart money is starting to pile in. Wheat will be greatly influenced by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. You’re talking about things like fertilizer, lower yields with crops, and wheat is probably going to have some supply issues later this year.

With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we bounce from here and we are right at the 50-day EMA. There are a million ways to play wheat. I’m just showing you the futures chart; it’s the purest way, but there are companies out there that specialize in fertilizer for wheat and other grains. There are also ETFs that track wheat, so I would highly recommend that you at least pay attention to what’s going on in wheat because it could be one of those big performers from about here to the end of the year.