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USD/CAD, Platinum and CAC 40 Forecasts – Falling Yields and Oil Shift Risk Appetite

By: 
Christopher Lewis

The US 10-year yield fell immediately on Monday, signaling a “risk-on " attitude.

10-Year Yield Technical Analysis

US 10-year Treasury yield daily chart showing the yield at 4.639% above the 4.600% level, with the 50-EMA at 4.514% and the 200-EMA at 4.351%.
The 10-year yield trades at 4.639%, holding above 4.600% and both moving averages. Source: TradingView

The US 10-year yield has gapped lower, and as a result, more of a risk-on appetite situation has occurred around the world, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This is about the 40th time this has happened in the last couple of months, or at least feels like it. The idea that Iran and the United States are not launching missiles at each other in the moment is nice, but it’s not a conclusion to what’s rapidly looking more like a forever problem. So, at this point in time, I would assume that there will be headlines out there that could turn this right back around. So, with that in mind, the 10-year yield is something that I watch very closely.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD daily chart showing price at 1.41036 above the 50-EMA at 1.40319 and the 1.40000 level, below the 1.42000 high.
USD/CAD trades at 1.41036, holding above 1.40 after pulling back from the 1.42 area. Source: TradingView

The US dollar initially fell a bit against the Canadian dollar but has since risen. And with the influence of falling oil, it does make a certain amount of sense. But quite frankly, the market has found a bit of a bottom near the 1.40 level again. Above the 1.4125 level, I’m looking to get long, perhaps seeing this pair grind its way to the 1.42 level. I have no interest in shorting this market. The interest rate differential continues to favor the United States despite the fact that rates have fallen, and of course, I’m not a big fan of the Canadian dollar at the moment.

Platinum Technical Analysis

Platinum futures daily chart showing price at 1,648.4 in a shaded band above the 1,600 level, below the 50-EMA at 1,733.7 and the 200-EMA at 1,804.6.
Platinum trades at 1,648.4, consolidating above the 1,600 support zone. Source: TradingView

The platinum market has taken off and looks fairly strong in early trading, but we are still very much in the consolidation that we have been in for a couple of weeks. I will be looking for signs of exhaustion on short-term charts, like 15-minute charts, somewhere a little closer to about $1,660 to start shorting for a short-term trade. This is not something I’m getting married to here, but it is the pattern that we’ve been in for some time. Quite frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see it continue.

CAC Technical Analysis

CAC 40 daily chart showing price at 8,451.8 above the 50-EMA at 8,328.4 and the 200-EMA at 8,183.3, near the 8,500 level.
The CAC 40 trades at 8,451.8, pressing toward the 8,500 level above both moving averages. Source: TradingView

The CAC in Paris is looking strong during the day, waiting to see at this point whether or not we can break the €8,500 level. This may not be a trade on Monday, but it is something I’m setting alarms in order to take advantage of any attempted breakout. We’ll just have to wait and see. Short-term pullbacks continue to find support from what I can see, as we do continue to grind higher over the longer term.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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