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USD/JPY, Corn, and Copper Forecasts – Elevated 10-Year Yields Drive Market Trends

By: 
Christopher Lewis

The US 10-year yield drifted a little lower in the early part of Tuesday trading, as we continue to move on the latest Middle East headlines.

US10Y Technical Analysis

Daily US 10-year Treasury yield chart at 4.628%, trending higher above its 50- and 200-day EMAs and back over 4.60%.
The US 10-year yield sits at 4.63%, above 4.60% near its recent high. Source: TradingView

The US 10-year yield has drifted a little bit lower during the early part of the trading session, but it is still above the 4.60% level, an area that previously had been a bit of a barrier, and it is still rather elevated. So, we are probably going to continue to focus on the bond markets. It’s a major driver of what happens in risk appetite and yielding versus non-yielding assets. So, keep that in mind and keep an eye on the 10-year yield. It gives you a little bit of a heads-up at times with those questions.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Daily USD/JPY chart at 163.934, in a steady uptrend above its 50- and 200-day EMAs, with the US 10-year yield overlaid at 4.63%.
USD/JPY grinds up to 163.93, holding above its rising EMAs. Source: TradingView

The US dollar continues to grind higher against the Japanese yen, which for me is not a huge surprise. I continue to buy this pair on each and every dip, little bits and pieces building a much larger position over the longer term as the interest rate continues to favor the US dollar. It’s a slow and steady grind to the upside. As long as it is slow and steady, the Bank of Japan could very well leave things alone, because quite frankly, it’s not getting out of control.

It’s the rate of change that a lot of times will trigger these moves, and we’ve already seen the Bank of Japan attempt to intervene a couple of times previously. All it did was slow down this freight train. I have no interest in shorting this pair, and until something fundamentally changes, which it’s probably not going to very soon, I don’t see any reason for me to get out of it.

Corn Technical Analysis

Daily corn chart at 453'6, bounced off July lows to reclaim its tightly clustered 50- and 200-day EMAs.
Corn trades at 453’6, back above its converged EMAs. Source: TradingView

Corn looks interesting. We had a nice down day on Monday, really wiping out a lot of longs, but this is still a very bullish look to me. Right around 455, I think things get interesting. That’s right about where we’re at now. The 50-day EMA has just broken above the 200-day EMA, and as a result, I think the Golden Cross signal might attract a certain amount of attention as well.

Corn is a market that I don’t pay attention to often enough, quite frankly, because I like the way it trends for long periods of time. The catch, of course, is the overnight margin if you’re trading futures. If you’re trading the CFD market, check that with your broker. That can vary widely, but this is a nice, strong uptrend.

USD/JPY Price Forecast

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Copper Technical Analysis

Daily copper chart at 6.2990, resting on its 50-day EMA and well above a rising 200-day EMA, below the 6.50 level.
Copper holds at 6.30, on its 50-day EMA below the 6.50 cap. Source: TradingView

Copper markets have fallen, reaching towards the 50-day EMA. This is an area I’ll be looking for a bounce. I could get involved to the upside in copper. I do not short copper in the environment we’re in because, quite frankly, the demand for copper is so strong. That doesn’t mean it can’t fall in price. It’s just that, fundamentally speaking, copper could be a very big story for the next couple of decades, quite frankly. So, I look for opportunities to buy it when it pulls back. I don’t really have too much interest in the way of shorting it.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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