Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bullish Over $1322.80, Bearish Under $1318.30

Gold prices continued to feel the impact of Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, finishing lower for the session on Monday.

April Comex Gold futures settled at $1320.80, down $3.20 or -0.24%.

Despite a lower U.S. Dollar, gold buyers were scarce. Some traders showed sensitivity to the jobs data which likely means the Fed will raise interest rates at next week’s meeting and as many as two more times later in the year. Others sat on the sidelines ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report that could have a major impact on Fed policy, Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar and gold prices.

Forecast

Gold is inching lower shortly before the regular session opening on Tuesday and the U.S. Consumer Inflation report at 1230 GMT.

At 0917 GMT, April Comex Gold is trading $1317.80, down $3.10 or -0.23%.

Investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest U.S. data on consumer inflation. It is expected to come in at 0.2%, down from the previously reported 0.5%. Core CPI is also expected to rise by 0.2%, down from the previously reported 0.3%.

This week’s U.S. inflation data could generate more uncertainty for investors. Weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data on Tuesday and producer inflation data on Wednesday could give stocks a boost while putting further pressure on the struggling U.S. Dollar. This could stop the slide in gold prices and may even generate a slight recovery.

Gold traders could also adopt a neutral stance going into next week’s Fed meeting. While traders largely expect the central bank to raise rates at its March 21 meeting, there is still a little nervousness ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy statement and its economic projections, or guidance.

Investors also remain cautious on the outlook for the U.S. Dollar due to concerns over U.S. trade protectionism after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, except those from Mexico, Canada and Australia. Most of the tension is coming from investors who have seen a negative impact on the dollar from previous tariffs.

The direction of gold today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a short-term retracement zone at $1322.80 to $1318.30. If the CPI report comes in lower than expected, buyers may go after $1322.80. If consumer inflation comes in higher than expectations then gold may spike through $1318.30. A neutral read means we’ll likely straddle the retracement zone.