River (RIVER) has seen its price explode in the past month, defying the market’s overall downtrend with an eye-watering 1,813.9% monthly gain.
This protocol offers multiple ways to generate yield through staking and “smart vaults” that allocate USDT and other assets to high-yielding opportunities across the DeFi ecosystem.
The protocol’s most attractive yield-bearing assets include satUSD, a synthetic stablecoin that can be minted by using Wrapped ETH (WETH) to access staking opportunities that currently offer a 15.5% annual percentage yield (APY).
Moreover, the liquidity pool for satUSD/USDT on Pancake Swap currently offers a 254% APY. Meanwhile, users can access the blockchain’s smart vaults for USDT, which yield from 40% to 43%, that will be distributed in satUSD and River points that can be redeemed instantly through its website.
The protocol attracted significant yield-farming and airdrop-farming activity prior to its token generation event (TGE). Data from DeFi Llama shows that its total value locked (TVL) peaked in early October at $628 million, but has progressively declined to $161 million as farmers cashed out.
However, its attractive staking rewards and stablecoin yields have helped it keep its shine.
The latest uptick – a 143% 7-day gain – seems to have accelerated as funding rates turned negative, forcing short sellers to pay a big premium to buyers who rushed through the door to take the other side of that trade.
One thing led to another, bears were squeezed out, and RIVER exploded.
We can see that River’s buy signals have been piling up in the 4-hour chart since January 11. That first signal has already yielded a 359% gain.
RIVER/USD 4-Hour Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView
Interestingly, a buy signal popped up today as River came close to the $90 mark. However, the price has been dropping in the past 8 hours, and could be heading to retest the $65 area – a former resistance.
If RIVER bounces off this mark, this fourth buy signal would be confirmed, and we could expect a strong move to $100 or higher in the next few days.
That said, the risk of a stronger pullback is quite high now, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flashed a bearish divergence, while the oscillator has dropped below the 14-day moving average, signaling that bearish momentum is gaining strength.
If we get a break below $65, that could result in a much stronger correction to the mid-30s, meaning a downside risk of around 50%. The downside risk at this point is high. That said, RIVER’s negative funding rate is still quite high.
Bulls may continue to pile in until somebody dumps the token and causes a cascade of liquidations that flip the funding market to the opposite side, or moves funding rates closer to normal levels.
RIVER Funding Rate – Source: CoinGlass
The “safest” way to profit from RIVER’s hype at this point would be through arbitrage. You’ll need a short spot position and a long futures position. The latter will pay an extremely high funding rate, while the former will pay borrowing fees. You’ll keep the difference.
Although profiting from these volatile price movements, there’s a catch. Even if you adopt a supposedly “delta neutral” arbitrage strategy, as your long leg in the futures market may be liquidated if the price drops sharply.
You’ll need a high enough buffer to keep your margin requirements in check to avoid a forced liquidation that pushes you out of neutral territory.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.