Silver Price Forecast: Rising on Weaker Dollar Ahead of Central Bank Decisions

Highlights

• Silver prices rise on weaker dollar and Fed rate hike anticipation.
• Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde’s statements to offer insights into monetary policies.
• Economic data and interest rate trajectories impact silver prices.

Overview

Comex Silver prices saw an uptick on Tuesday, driven by a weaker dollar, while traders eagerly awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike decision and clues about future monetary policies. The dollar’s dip from its near-two-week peak provided support to precious metals like silver, making them more affordable for buyers holding other currencies. However, gains might be tempered by higher Treasury yields as investors assessed the outlook for central banks’ monetary policy decisions worldwide.

Spotlight on Powell and Lagarde

The spotlight was on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday statement and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s Thursday remarks, which would shed light on the monetary policy outlook for their respective September meetings. Investors carefully considered the path of interest rates in the U.S. and other key global economies, as the Fed, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan were all scheduled to announce rate decisions during the week.

Fed to Raise Rates 25 Basis Points

While a 25 basis point rate increase by the Fed was widely expected, uncertainty remained about future Fed meetings and the central bank’s policy moves. Economic data, particularly the consumer price index, would play a pivotal role in shaping the decisions. Silver, being sensitive to rising interest rates that increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, could experience fluctuations based on the guidance and decisions made.

Slowing Business Activity in US, Europe Could Mean Central Bank Pause

Data showing a slowdown in U.S. and Europe business activity in July hinted at the potential conclusion of their rate-hike cycles. Traders projected the Fed to maintain interest rates within the 5.25%-5.5% range until 2024, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool. Silver’s best prospects for reaching the $25 – $26 area hinged on the Fed’s announcement of an end to their tightening cycle without an imminent recession.

In related news from China, gold consumption rose 16.37% year-on-year, while production of gold enterprises returned to normal in the first half of 2023. The country’s major state-owned banks strategically sold dollars to buy yuan, providing support to the currency after leaders pledged to bolster policy support for the economy.

Short-Term Outlook:  Fed, ECB Dependent

In conclusion, silver’s price surge was fueled by a weaker dollar, with market attention fixed on central bank decisions and key economic data. Traders awaited guidance from policymakers while monitoring global economic trends and geopolitical developments, keeping a close eye on interest rate trajectories for potential bullish or bearish movements in silver prices.

Technical Analysis

Comex Silver shows cautiously bullish sentiment as the current price of 24.805 edges higher than the previous close. The 200-4H moving average supports the positive trend, indicating a gradual uptrend over the past 200 periods. However, the 50-4H moving average poses as a resistance level, possibly leading to consolidation or downward correction. The 14-4H RSI hovers around the neutral point at 48.44, indicating balanced momentum.

The market approaches a critical main resistance area between 25.970 and 26.435, influencing its future direction. Traders should closely watch for a breakout above this zone to signal further bullish movement or a failure to break through may trigger a potential bearish reversal.