Silver has fallen significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are testing the bottom of the overall range. The $22.50 level continues to be important.
Silver has seen the market fall rather significantly during the trading session as the US dollar spiked. That being said, the $22.50 level underneath does offer a lot of support, as it is the bottom of the overall range. The question now is whether or not it can hold, and that will be the main argument on the minds of traders. Ultimately, interest rates are a major driver of where silver could go, as well as the US dollar. If we were to break down below the $22.50 level, then it’s likely we go looking to the $20 level underneath.
On the other hand, if we see this area hold, we could see a nice bounce toward the 200-Day EMA. That being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore we need to pay close attention to what’s going on in the US dollar, and of course interest rates, right along with this indicator. If we break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $24 level, although that would take a significant amount of momentum. At this point, I think silver is probably going to bounce around and try to figure out what to do with itself. That being said, you should be cautious with your position size as silver is extraordinarily volatile under the best of circumstances, and at this point it doesn’t look like we have a lot of certainty.
From a purely technical analysis standpoint, it does look like this would be an area of value, so I think a lot of people will be paying attention to it. That being said, I’m probably going to wait until next week to actually put any money to work, because I want to see how the dust settles on Friday. The markets continue to see a lot of uncertainty around the world, and the more volatile assets such as silver will most certainly pay a price for being as wild as they are typically. The US dollar continues to be strong, but that by itself may not be what brings silver down.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.