Silver (XAG) Forecast: Buy the Dip at 50-Day MA or Wait for $33.70 Breakout?

Silver Awaits Breakout as U.S. Fiscal Fears Support Precious Metals

Silver is holding steady just below key technical resistance, trading sideways as traders await a clear catalyst. While gold rallies on fiscal worries and safe-haven buying, silver’s correlation to the broader precious metals space keeps it well supported—but also tethered to gold’s next move.

At 11:57 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $33.08, up $0.02 or +0.05%.

Can Silver Ride Gold’s Fiscal Tailwinds?

Investors remain focused on the implications of the U.S. government’s ballooning debt. President Trump’s newly passed tax and spending package could add nearly $4 trillion to the federal deficit, intensifying pressure on Treasurys and the dollar. That has underpinned gold’s rally, with prices aiming for the $3435 to $3500 range. Given silver’s tendency to follow gold in times of financial stress, the metal has a bullish backdrop despite its current consolidation phase.

Treasury Yields Rise, But Dollar Fades—A Silver-Friendly Setup

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 5.02% on Friday, signaling investors’ concern over the growing debt supply. Yet, the dollar index posted its steepest weekly decline since April, down 1.35%. The disconnect between rising yields and a falling dollar underscores deepening doubts about the long-term appeal of U.S. assets. This macro setup favors safe-haven alternatives—especially gold and, by extension, silver.

Key Technical Levels: Will $33.70 Trigger a Silver Surge?

Silver is perched just under resistance at $33.70. A confirmed breakout above this level could spark momentum toward $34.59 and $34.87. Failure to hold support at the 50-day moving average of $32.80 would shift the focus to the 200-day at $31.45. Current price action reflects indecision, but a strong close above resistance would likely draw fresh inflows.

Market Forecast: Bullish if Resistance Breaks

As long as silver remains above its 50-day moving average, the technical setup favors a bullish scenario. Momentum is currently capped, but broader market forces—especially safe-haven buying and fiscal disarray—support upside risk. A breakout over $33.70 would likely accelerate gains, positioning silver to test the mid-$34s. Conversely, a break below $32.80 would bring short-term selling pressure, though structural support remains strong above $31.

Traders should monitor gold’s next leg closely—silver’s playbook will likely follow.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.