Silver (XAG) Forecast: Can Bulls Push Price Past $38.51 for a Run at $39.53?

Silver Holds Near Highs as Traders Weigh Fed Signals, Dollar Moves, and Gold Correlation

Silver prices are steady on Friday, pausing just under Thursday’s high at $38.51. This level is now a key trigger for a potential acceleration toward $39.53—the highest price in 14 years. The consolidation comes as traders assess a mix of factors influencing precious metals, including the U.S. dollar’s weekly loss, stable Treasury yields, and policy uncertainty around the Federal Reserve.

At 12:20 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $38.26, down $0.02 or -0.05%.

Dollar Weakness Keeps Precious Metals Supported

The U.S. dollar index is holding near 98.31 but remains down 0.6% for the week. Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board has reinforced expectations for a dovish tilt in monetary policy, which could pressure the dollar further.

For silver and gold, a softer dollar typically translates into stronger demand from overseas buyers. The market is now watching whether political influence on the Fed will extend the currency’s decline, potentially fueling further gains in metals.

Treasury Yields Offer Cushion for Bulls

Treasury yields remain steady, with the 10-year at 4.252% and the 2-year at 3.742%. For silver, the impact mirrors that of gold—stable or falling yields lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, encouraging dip buying. A sustained period of contained yields could keep silver underpinned, especially if combined with further dollar softness.

Tariff Developments Add to Safe-Haven Demand

Fresh U.S. tariff measures—50% duties on Brazilian and Indian goods, 25–35% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and a 10% baseline elsewhere—have injected a degree of economic uncertainty into the market. Such trade tensions often boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with both metals benefitting from heightened geopolitical and trade risks.

Short-Term Forecast – Silver Eyes Breakout, Gold Provides Confirmation

Silver’s near-term bias stays positive while holding above $37.00, the 50-day moving average.

The immediate pivot at $37.87 acts as first-line support, with deeper downside protection at $36.21. A decisive break above $38.51 could trigger a rally toward $39.53.

Gold’s own bullish structure—holding above $3350.00 support and targeting $3439.04–$3451.53—adds weight to the bullish case for silver.

If both metals push through their respective resistance levels, traders could see accelerated buying in the short run. Conversely, breaks below $37.00 in silver or $3350.00 in gold would signal a more defensive setup.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.