Silver (XAG) Forecast: Holding 50-Day Moving Average; Bulls Target $50.02

Silver Holds Ground as Market Eyes Fed Policy Signals

Silver prices moved modestly higher on Thursday, climbing off this week’s low of $45.55. The rebound comes as traders reassess Federal Reserve policy direction and position around the 50-day moving average at $45.21 — a level that has consistently underpinned recent dip-buying activity.

At 12:22 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $48.13, down $0.57 or -1.20%.

The metal is attempting to reclaim upward momentum after a quiet start to the week, with traders watching closely for any fresh catalysts that could push prices higher. For now, near-term positioning remains constructive above $45.21, but a lack of conviction limits follow-through buying.

Fed Rate Cut Supports Bullish Bias in Precious Metals

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points — lowering the target range to 3.75%–4.00% — has lent support to precious metals. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled uncertainty about further cuts, markets are still pricing in a 70% probability of another move by year-end.

This has weighed on the U.S. dollar and real yields, both key drivers for silver. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to benefit when the opportunity cost of holding it declines, particularly when policy direction favors easing.

50-Day Moving Average Anchors Bullish Sentiment

The 50-day moving average at $45.21 remains the primary technical indicator for trend direction. Price action above this level continues to invite “buy the dip” behavior, even in the absence of clear momentum triggers. Thursday’s low at $45.55 adds further weight to this area as short-term support.

Upside remains capped for now, but traders are watching the retracement zone between $50.02 and $51.07 — a key area tied to the September correction. A sustained push toward that target likely requires additional drivers, either from U.S. data surprises or renewed risk-off demand.

Fundamentals Mixed, but Supportive in Near Term

While silver carries safe-haven appeal, it also tracks industrial demand, particularly from China. Current macro data has been mixed, limiting conviction on both sides. Still, the recent Fed-driven pullback in yields provides a tailwind, and traders are unlikely to fade rallies unless policy expectations shift significantly.

Silver Outlook: Cautiously Bullish Above 50-Day Moving Average at $45.21 Today

The technical picture favors further gains while silver holds above the 50-day moving average. With a softer dollar and dovish rate expectations in play, a move toward $50.02–$51.07 remains possible. A decisive move below the 50-day moving average would weaken the outlook and trigger profit-taking liquidation. Traders will focus on Friday’s inflation data and Fed commentary for the next directional cue.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.