Silver (XAG) Forecast: Jobs Beat Hits Sentiment as Sellers Test $51.07 Pivot

Silver Slips as Traders Reprice Fed-Cut Odds; Key Technical Levels in Focus

Spot silver edged lower on Thursday after the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls report came in stronger than expected, softening hopes for a December rate cut and cooling appetite across precious metals. The print pushed traders to reassess the near-term policy outlook, with gold also holding flat and offering no support to silver’s tone late in the session .

At 14:22 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $51.05, down $0.31 or -0.61%.

Labor Data Outperforms Expectations, Limiting Fed-Cut Speculation

The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September versus expectations of 50,000. While July and August were revised lower, the headline figure still indicates more hiring momentum than markets anticipated.

The unemployment rate held at 4.4%, its highest level since late 2021 . Additional labor and manufacturing data also pointed to slowing—but not collapsing—economic activity, with regional factory orders and shipments slipping back into contraction in November .

Treasury Yields Steady as Traders Assess the Print

U.S. Treasury yields remained mostly unchanged, with the 10-year near 4.117% and the 2-year around 3.571% . Yields initially drifted higher before the payrolls print, then eased afterward, but not enough to materially support precious metals.

Analysts noted that the probability of a December cut requires a notably weak payrolls number — a condition not met by Thursday’s data. With yields holding firm rather than breaking lower, silver lacked a momentum driver.

Dollar Rises Pre-NFP, Softens After — but Not Enough to Boost Silver

The dollar strengthened ahead of the report, reaching 100.360, as traders positioned for possible upside in the jobs numbers. After the stronger-than-expected release, the dollar eased as yields cooled, but the pullback was limited . This sequence left silver under early selling pressure without gaining meaningful relief from the post-NFP dollar dip. Gold’s flat response, trading near $4077.39, reinforced the lack of upside interest for silver .

Technical Levels Dominate Short-Term Trading

Silver is straddling a key Fibonacci level at $51.07, which is controlling near-term direction. If selling extends, bears will target the double 50% levels at $50.02 and $49.97, followed by the swing bottom at $49.36 and the 61.8% level at $48.93. The 50-day moving average at $48.16 remains the primary trend indicator controlling the broader uptrend.

On the upside, a sustained move above $51.07 would indicate fresh buying interest and could open the path toward $54.39 and $54.49 .

Short-Term Market Forecast: Bearish Bias

Stronger labor data, steady yields, and only a modest dollar retreat keep the near-term tone bearish for silver. Until the dollar weakens more decisively or gold attracts stronger buying interest, silver is likely to stay under pressure while traders monitor price behavior around the key technical zone at $51.07.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.