Natural Gas News: Market Awaits EIA Today as Weather Trends Shift Bullish for Natural Gas

Natural Gas Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Storage Report and Colder Weather Shift

U.S. natural gas futures were steady early Thursday as traders awaited the latest storage data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and digested a mixed but increasingly supportive weather outlook. The market is holding above the key 200-day moving average, a technical level that has recently drawn strong buying interest and could act as a trigger point for bullish momentum.

At 15:09 GMT, December Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.530, down $0.020 or -0.44%.

Is Weather Finally Turning Bullish for Natural Gas?

Weather models shifted colder on Wednesday, especially for late November and early December. Atmospheric G2 noted colder temperatures are expected to hit the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. between November 24–28, with additional cooling seen in the central U.S. through early December.

While NatGasWeather described current demand as moderate to low, the potential for a colder pattern building into December may offer support to prices, particularly as heating demand picks up.

Inventory Expectations Shift Sentiment

Market focus is squarely on Thursday’s EIA report. A storage draw of 11–17 Bcf is expected for the week ended November 14, a notable deviation from the five-year average injection of +12 Bcf.

If realized, this would mark a supportive inflection in inventory trends, especially following last week’s bearish +45 Bcf build. Inventories as of November 7 were 0.3% lower year-over-year but still 4.5% above the five-year average, suggesting ample supply but rising seasonal demand.

Production Remains Elevated, Capping Upside Potential

Despite tightening inventories, production remains a key headwind. Lower-48 dry gas output was 109.4 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 7.5% year-over-year. The EIA also raised its 2025 production forecast to 107.67 Bcf/d, underlining sustained supply strength.

Although Baker Hughes reported a drop in active gas rigs to 125—down from a recent 2.25-year high—production remains near record levels, limiting the market’s ability to rally significantly on weather or storage data alone.

Electricity Demand Adds Subtle Tailwind

Power sector data continues to offer quiet support. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 5.33% year-over-year rise in U.S. electricity output for the week ending November 15. Electricity demand is up 2.9% over the past year, a reflection of broader energy consumption that could help absorb some of the ongoing supply glut.

Short-Term Market Outlook: Cautiously Bullish

With the market trading above its 200-day moving average and colder weather forecasts firming, the short-term bias leans bullish. A supportive storage draw could provide the next catalyst for an upside push, particularly if prices challenge swing highs at $4.688 and $4.717.

However, elevated production and comfortable storage levels will temper gains. Traders should watch today’s EIA release closely, as a sharper-than-expected draw could reinforce the current uptrend.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.