Silver (XAG) Forecast: Market Stretched at $57.87 High — Momentum at Risk?

Silver Pops to Fresh Highs — But Buyers Are Starting to Slow Down

Spot silver is a little firmer to start the week, but the tone’s not as punchy as Friday. The market tagged a new record high at $57.87 early in the session before easing back, and with no real resistance overhead, the chart is mostly about pattern recognition. Traders are watching one simple tell: a higher high paired with a lower close would warn that some sellers are finally leaning into this stretch.

At 13:02 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $57.26, up $0.87 or +1.54%.

A Thin-Friday Surge Now Getting Questioned

Friday’s 5.5% jump still hangs over the market. Some traders are treating that move as “maybe a bit much,” especially with volumes thinned out by the Thanksgiving weekend. If that pop proves overstretched, silver could easily slide back toward the breakout point at $54.49 — the place where buyers last showed real conviction. A retest wouldn’t be shocking. The question is whether dip-buyers still care at those levels.

Fed Expectations: The Big Engine Behind the Move

The strongest tailwind right now is the rate story. Traders are pricing in 85–87% odds of a December Fed cut, a massive jump from the 30–50% band just a week ago. Softer retail sales and tame producer prices have opened the door for easing without stoking fresh inflation worries, and that’s exactly the backdrop silver bulls like. Low rates lower the cost of holding a metal that doesn’t yield a dime — yet serves as a hedge when policy turns friendlier.

Dovish talk from Fed officials — including Waller and Williams — has only emboldened that view. They’ve highlighted cooling growth and labor-market softness, and the market has treated that as a green light.

Supply Is Tight, and Everyone Knows It

Chinese inventories are sitting at a 10-year low while exports just hit a record 660 metric tons in October. Mine output is down roughly 7% from 2016, and new projects aren’t stepping up. Analysts expect another supply deficit in 2025, which would make it the fifth straight year running. There’s just not much buffer if demand keeps trending higher.

Industrial Demand Still Doing the Heavy Lifting

More than half of silver demand now comes from industrial use — solar, semis, EV components. The green-energy push keeps ratcheting up consumption, and supply isn’t matching it. That’s been a core pillar behind this year’s monster run: nearly 98% higher year-to-date and 88% above where we stood a year ago. The gold-silver ratio sliding under 77 says the metal may not be done asserting itself.

So Where Does This Go Short-Term?

The market wants to stay bid, but it’s getting stretched. A softer close today after the early record high would hint at some cooling. If sellers press, $54.49 is the logical check-back area. If buyers step in again, the trend stays intact — just with a little more caution creeping into the tape. And with silver sitting in uncharted territory, the lack of any real resistance overhead still gives bulls room — as long as they can hold the line on pullbacks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.